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In today’s show we discuss:
Future Proof Festival
Recessions have not been “redefined”.https://t.co/R42GCfU1An
This is the kind of FAQ I asked when I first became a financial reporter in 1987.
I got the same answer 35 (yes, thirty-five) years ago. pic.twitter.com/Ig5j3EYtA5
— Jason Zweig (@jasonzweigwsj) July 27, 2022
Given all the discussion this week, I thought it might be interesting to look back at the one example we have of a two-quarter drop in GDP that the NBER *didn’t* call a recession: Q2 and Q3, 1947.
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) July 27, 2022
Rarely seen: Fed actively raising rates (blue line) while GDP is contracting (below) … typically in previous recessions (red bars) the Fed has cut rates as GDP declines pic.twitter.com/nmrYG3TBc0
— Liz Ann Saunders (@LizAnnSonders) August 1, 2022
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) July 27, 2022
B of A: “The recent debate over whether the US is already in recession is a distraction. Huge wages, strong GDI and strong final sales all suggest that ‘recession’ is still a forecast, not a reality.” [Harris] pic.twitter.com/kuKQ9ry8De
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) July 29, 2022
Interesting facts: In the first six months of the 1981-82 recession, we lost 1,046,000 jobs, in the first six months of the 1990-01 recession. we lost 690 thousand jobs, in 2001 we lost 761 thousand jobs, in 2007-09. lost 705 thousand jobs. In 2022, we got 2,740,000 jobs.
— Dean Baker (@DeanBaker13) July 29, 2022
— Economics of Trade (@tEconomics) July 27, 2022
Digressing from the debate about the ultra-high frequencies of which this picture @WSJ it’s a great reminder of how much better economic policy has become in the last eighty years than it used to be. Both better understanding and institutional progress. https://t.co/RBlb89Z6hT pic.twitter.com/X9p5CLn46I
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) July 30, 2022
The 10-year Treasury note posted its biggest one-month drop in yields since **March 2020** – according to Dow Jones market data.
– Gunjan Banerjee (@GunjanJS) July 29, 2022
Of the previous 86 days when the Nasdaq rose 4%+, nearly half occurred from 2000-2002. pic.twitter.com/fW59tPf61T
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 28, 2022
The S&P 500 rose 3.9% on the day of the Fed hike and the day after.
This is officially the best rally since the campaign since 1970 (Bloomberg data).
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 28, 2022
5. There has never been a recession without a decline in Q4 GAAP EPS. In most recessions, annualized earnings per share growth is ⬇️ <-20%.
This is important because the market tends to ⬆️ faster EPS growth ⬇️ (markets expect reversals) EXCEPT when EPS growth is <-20% (SPX -9.8% GPA). 5/5 pic.twitter.com/5NN7K5yAcW
— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) July 25, 2022
S&P 500 earnings expectations for 2023 fall off a cliff. pic.twitter.com/5rgLtWGo0V
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) July 29, 2022
Proceeds from technology IPOs totaled $512 million, down from $58.7 billion last year.
— Ryan Petersen (@typesfast) July 27, 2022
mortgage rates were exceptionally volatile in 2022.
this year, the standard deviation of the weekly change in the 30-year FRM is 18 basis points, the highest since 2008 and the third largest in half a century pic.twitter.com/BlgX03CU7I
— 📈 Len Kiefer 📊 (@lenkiefer) July 29, 2022
An incredible story. Tiger Global-backed startup MissFresh has just told employees it has run out of money. At the same time, unpaid suppliers occupied his offices in protest. Reminder: last year it was valued at $3 billion – in @FT https://t.co/Sfp4OK3wEy
— Murad Ahmed (@muradahmed) July 28, 2022
– Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) (@TSOH_Investing) July 28, 2022
In the meantime….
Average real income growth for FAANG stocks has officially turned negative for the first time in nearly 2 decades. pic.twitter.com/CAUP6VZQU7
— Ottavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 29, 2022
Give those mega hats a ribbon!
This earnings season marks the first time since 2015 that AAPL AMZN GOOGL and MSFT will open the report in the same week and all 4 reacted positively to their reports. https://t.co/7Q06UdGTS9 pic.twitter.com/84flXtW0Di
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) July 29, 2022
*BEST BUY INCREASE 11% AS COMPARABLE 2Q SALES, BEFORE DECREASING 13%
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 27, 2022
Guess the first recession where leisure/hospitality companies make more than they grow: pic.twitter.com/HX8hpBJ5eW
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) July 27, 2022
— Sarah Halzack (@sarahhalzack) July 26, 2022
Once people get used to a certain luxury, they take it for granted. Then they start counting on it. Finally, they reach a point where they can’t live without it. pic.twitter.com/4t2hz9xGOE
— Yuval Noah Harari (@harari_yuval) July 12, 2022
What a chart, via @sarafischer.
The broadcast receives “the highest percentage since then [Nielsen] began monthly reporting in June 2021.” pic.twitter.com/5ke1dHRbek
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) July 26, 2022
— 20th Century Studios (@20thcentury) August 1, 2022
Michael B. Jordan’s Creed III has officially been pushed back from November 23, 2022 to March 3, 2023. pic.twitter.com/OgLc2aPxRa
— Rotten Tomatoes (@RottenTomatoes) July 28, 2022
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