Trading in the EUR/USD range continued last week and the outlook remained unchanged. The initial bias remains neutral this week. On the upside, above minor resistance at 1.0277 will first target resistance at 1.0348. A break there would lead to channel resistance at 1.0469. On the other hand, a break of the minor support at 1.0095 would lead to a retest of the 0.9951 low instead.
In the broader picture, the downtrend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still ongoing. The next target is the 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 at 0.8694. In any case, the outlook will remain bearish as long as the 1.0773 resistance remains, in case of a strong rebound.
In the longer term, the long-term downtrend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is resuming. A sustained breakout of the 61.8% forecast of 1.3993 to 1.0339 from 1.2348 to 1.0090 will open the way to the 100% forecast of 0.8694.