“That’s not what we’re seeing now. If you look at the economy, job creation continues, household finances remain strong, consumers are spending and businesses are growing.”
Still, Americans are getting tired. According to a press release from the Conference Board, “consumer pessimism about future business conditions, softening labor market conditions, lower stock prices and weaker new manufacturing orders led to a decline in the LEI in June.”
Richard Goyette, of Fannie Mae’s economic and strategic research group, said a recession is likely to begin in the first quarter of 2023 as inflation and rising interest rates increasingly weigh on consumer sentiment and spending.
“What’s more, the increase in initial jobless claims to the highest level in eight months suggests that the labor market is beginning to relax,” he added.
“If we’re not already in a recession, we will be soon,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. any other type of happy ending.”