New analysis shows that people born later will experience much more severe weather events
Children born today will face climate change much more than their parents or grandparents. In a study published recently in Science, Wim Thierry of the Vrije Universiteit Brussel in Belgium and colleagues combined climate model projections of three global warming scenarios with demographic data to calculate the lifetime exposure to six types of extreme weather for each generation born between 1960 and 2020 year. Even as a climate scientist acutely aware of the dangers of rising temperatures, “seeing the numbers as a person, as a parent, is a punch in the gut,” he says. Young people in the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa, as well as low-income countries, will see the greatest increase in exposure. These estimates only look at changes in the frequency of extreme events – they do not show how these events may become more intense and long-lasting. While “younger generations have the most to lose if global warming reaches higher levels,” says Thierry, they also have the most to gain if greenhouse gas emissions can be curbed. “It’s a key message of hope.”
This article was originally published as Generational Climate Change in Scientific American 326, 2, 76 (February 2022)
doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0222-76
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